PracticeEnergy facilities and transitions
What a plant closure, or an extension, means for the county around it.
BEAR has assessed Diablo Canyon twice: the closure for the Public Utilities Commission in 2019, and extended operation for PG&E, presented in 2026. It wrote the economic volumes of the California ISO’s SB 350 grid study, is preparing the ISO’s AB 825 California Jobs Study, and supplied the model for CalGEM’s well stimulation SRIA. The same questions now face the communities around California’s refineries.
The record
Write-ups with the client, the year, the headline result and the public document.
| Client | Engagement | Year | Headline result |
|---|---|---|---|
| California ISO | California ISO: the AB 825 California Jobs Study | 2026 | 2040 Forecast horizon for California electric power jobs |
| PG&E | PG&E: what Diablo Canyon’s extended operation is worth to the region | 2026 | $901.3M Annual contribution to California gross state product |
| CalGEM | CalGEM: phasing out well stimulation permits in California oil production | 2023 | 1,442 Fewer wells drilled over ten years, all in Kern County |
| CPUC | CPUC: the economic impact of closing Diablo Canyon | 2019 | $77M Estimated net annual loss, about 0.58 percent of gross regional product |
| State of Oregon | Oregon: the economics of cap-and-trade under HB 2020 | 2019 | 50,000 Additional jobs by 2050 on the path to 80 percent below 1990 emissions |
| CEC | California Energy Commission: jobs to 2050, tract by tract | 2018 | 8,000 Census tracts with employment forecasts to 2050 |
| California ISO | California ISO: jobs and incomes under a regional grid | 2016 | 110,000 More jobs in 2030 from a 50 percent RPS against a 33 percent reference, upper scenario (90,000 lower) |
Statewide, county, and the tax base
A closure is a statewide event in the energy system and a local event in the economy. BEAR’s assessments trace both: the facility’s purchases, payroll and taxes, and the effect on county jobs, household income, housing and the public budget that depends on it.
For the California ISO and the Energy Commission, statewide results were carried down to census tracts, so effects on disadvantaged communities could be read directly instead of inferred from a state average.
Can you separate the local effect from the statewide one?
Yes. The Diablo Canyon work reports San Luis Obispo County, Santa Barbara County and California separately; the ISO and Energy Commission studies go down to census tracts.
Do you look at housing and property values?
Yes. The 2019 Diablo Canyon assessment included a housing profile of San Luis Obispo County and event studies of home prices and municipal bonds, and the 2026 summary tests whether the extension moved local home values.
Have you worked on oil production as well as power?
Yes. The BEAR model produced the economic estimates in CalGEM’s 2023 SRIA for phasing out well stimulation permits.
Facing a closure, an extension or a transition plan?
Write with the facility and the decision date. BEAR replies the same week.