BEAR, Berkeley Economic Advising and Research

ProjectsCEC

California Energy Commission: jobs to 2050, tract by tract

What California’s long-term energy and climate scenarios mean for incomes, jobs and health, statewide and in each of the state’s census tracts, published by the Energy Commission as CEC-500-2018-013.

Three maps showing disadvantaged communities in red: statewide, Los Angeles County and the Central Valley
Disadvantaged communities statewide, in Los Angeles County and in the Central Valley, which together hold nearly three quarters of them. From BEAR’s report for the Commission (2018).

The question

What do California’s long-term energy and climate scenarios to 2050 mean for incomes, jobs and public health, statewide and in disadvantaged communities, at census-tract resolution?

What BEAR found

8,000Census tracts with employment forecasts to 2050
3.3MAdditional full-time jobs by 2050; more than 500,000 by 2030
9%Higher real gross state product by 2050; 2 percent by 2030

Lasting low-carbon investment could raise real gross state product 2 percent by 2030 and 9 percent by 2050, and create more than 500,000 additional full-time jobs by 2030 and 3.3 million by 2050, with employment forecast for each of the state’s 8,000 census tracts and 2,000 disadvantaged communities.

Disadvantaged communities, a quarter of the population, capture about 30 percent of new jobs by 2030 (170,000 against 406,000 elsewhere) and larger health benefits per household ($581 against $494).

Method

The BEAR dynamic CGE forecasting model, fed with E3’s energy-system cost and technology scenarios, with health co-benefits estimated from evidence linking pollution and mortality, and results downscaled to census tracts and CalEnviroScreen disadvantaged communities.

Team

David Roland-Holst, Samuel Evans, Sam Heft-Neal, Drew Behnke and Myung Lucy Shim.

Public record

How to cite

Roland-Holst, D., Evans, S., Heft-Neal, S., Behnke, D., and Shim, M. L. (2018). Exploring Economic Impacts in Long-Term California Energy Scenarios. California Energy Commission. Publication Number CEC-500-2018-013.

More from this practice area