What will it really pay?
Property, business and utility users taxes over twenty years, with fast-depreciating server equipment and tax caps counted, net of the services the site and its workforce use.
PracticeData centers and AI
What a data center would pay a city, and what it would cost residents.
At least 26 California cities and counties have passed or proposed data center moratoriums, bans or resolutions since June 2026. Each now has to decide what comes next. BEAR gives councils and planning staff an independent economic read before they vote: the tax ledger, the effect on power bills, the jobs, and what else the same site could hold.
The questions a council will ask
A data center study answers them with numbers for this city and this site, not a statewide average or the applicant’s own brochure.
Will residents’ power bills rise?
How a large new load lands on PG&E, Southern California Edison, municipal utility and community choice customers once the state’s new data center tariffs take effect.
How many jobs, and for whom?
The construction surge against a small permanent staff, and how much of each is hired and spent locally.
What else could the site be?
The tax base, jobs and housing the same parcel or building would carry in other uses, and the effect on nearby property values.
Do the applicant’s numbers hold up?
An independent check of the jobs, revenue and power figures in a developer’s own impact study, against public data.
If the answer is yes, what should we require?
Fees, community benefit terms and permit conditions sized so that an approval pays its way.
What the 2026 state laws change
The seven data center laws signed on September 21, 2026 give cities better numbers to work with and new terms to plan around. Facilities of 10 megawatts or more must report energy use to the Energy Commission and to local permitting agencies (AB 1577). Projects that raise peak water use need water supply assessments (AB 2469). The Public Utilities Commission must set data center tariffs by January 1, 2028 (AB 2383, SB 886) and study how such facilities should share transmission, distribution and procurement costs (SB 1168).
A local ordinance written now should anticipate all of it. BEAR builds those rules into the ratepayer and fiscal analysis, so a council sees the numbers it will actually face.
Sources: CalMatters, October 2026; Holland & Knight, October 2026.
How long does a study take?
About twelve weeks to council-ready findings, so the work can finish inside a moratorium.
Can neighboring cities share one study?
Yes. One regional model can serve several jurisdictions, with results reported for each, which also splits the cost.
Can BEAR work under our planning consultant?
Yes. BEAR can join a planning-led team as the economics subconsultant. See Work with BEAR for certifications and terms.
Does BEAR work on AI beyond data centers?
Yes. BEAR prepared the economic impact assessment of the California Privacy Protection Agency’s regulations on automated decisionmaking technology, risk assessments and cybersecurity audits (2024), which put first-year direct costs at $3.5 billion. Read the write-up.
The record behind it
Not data center studies themselves, but the same analysis a data center study needs: grid economics for the California ISO, the county economy and tax base around a major energy facility, and the economics of California’s rules on automated decisionmaking. More in energy facilities and transitions.
California ISO, 2016
California ISO: jobs and incomes under a regional grid
90,000 to 110,000 more jobs in 2030 from 50 percent renewables, with results carried down to census tracts.
CPUC, 2019
CPUC: the economic impact of closing Diablo Canyon
A gross $801 million annual loss, largely offset by decommissioning, for a net loss of about $77 million a year.
CPPA, 2024
California Privacy Protection Agency: cybersecurity audits, risk assessments and automated decisionmaking
$3.5 billion in first-year direct costs across about 52,000 covered businesses, against cybercrime savings that reach $66.3 billion a year by 2036.
Weighing a moratorium, an ordinance or an application?
Write with the jurisdiction and the decision date. BEAR replies the same week with a scope and a fixed fee.