The question
What incremental costs and benefits would the first CCPA regulations add beyond the statute itself?
What BEAR found
The regulations add $467 million to $16.5 billion in compliance costs over 2020 to 2030, depending on whether only the 15,643 firms above $25 million in revenue comply, or also half to three-quarters of smaller firms (383,323 to 570,066 businesses).
By 2030 real gross state product is $0.14 billion, $3.09 billion or $4.6 billion below baseline in the three cases, with 430, 9,520 or 14,150 fewer full-time jobs; the SRIA describes this as negligible in a $5.6 trillion economy. It was the first SRIA prepared under the CCPA.
Method
The BEAR dynamic CGE model (60 sectors on 2017 IMPLAN data), run over 2020 to 2030 against the Department of Finance’s June 2019 conforming forecast, with compliance costs split between labor and IT purchases and three firm-coverage scenarios.
Team
David Roland-Holst (project manager), Samuel Evans, Drew Behnke, Samuel Neal, Liam Frölund and Yao Xiao.
Public record
- SRIA as submitted to the Department of Finance (PDF)August 2019
- Initial Statement of Reasons appendices, SRIA as Appendix A (PDF)oag.ca.gov
- Department of Finance comment letter (PDF)September 16, 2019
- CCPA regulations pageoag.ca.gov
How to cite
Roland-Holst, D., Evans, S., Behnke, D., Neal, S., Frölund, L., and Xiao, Y. (2019). Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment: California Consumer Privacy Act of 2018 Regulations. Berkeley Economic Advising and Research. Prepared for the Attorney General’s Office, California Department of Justice.
