The question
How should the Energy Commission estimate the economywide impact of a major regulation, and how do the available models compare when they are given the same rule?
What BEAR found
The 2016 SRIA estimated the statewide economic effects of the Commission’s appliance efficiency standards for computers, computer monitors and signage displays (CEC-400-2016-008). The Department of Finance summary names the Berkeley Energy and Resources (BEAR) model.
Alongside it, the team wrote consultant memoranda on how the Commission should approach upcoming SRIAs, reviewed the SRIAs submitted to date, and documented a SRIA baseline forecast for the California economy. The 2017 model comparison ran one efficiency rule through REMI PI+, IMPLAN, RIMS II and the BEAR model and compared the REMI and BEAR baselines for 2015 to 2030. A 2018 workshop in Sacramento presented the approach to state staff.
Method
The BEAR dynamic CGE model of California, with a baseline extended from Department of Finance series to 2030, compared directly against input-output and regional models on the same policy shock.
Team
David Roland-Holst, Samuel Evans, Sam Heft-Neal, Drew Behnke, Cecilia Han Springer and Tessa Emmer, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
Public record
- Appliance efficiency SRIA, 2016 (PDF)Department of Finance major regulations table, June 30, 2016
- Model comparison for SRIA macroeconomic assessment (PDF)Evans and Roland-Holst, June 2017
- Guidance for the CEC on upcoming SRIAs (PDF)Consultant memorandum, 2016
- Review of SRIAs to date (PDF)Consultant memorandum
- BEAR model: SRIA baseline forecast for the California economy (PDF)Consultant memorandum, Task 2.2
- SRIA workshop, Sacramento (PDF)May 30, 2018
How to cite
Evans, S. G., and Roland-Holst, D. (2017). Model Comparison for SRIA Macroeconomic Assessment. Research Paper No. 1706151. Berkeley Economic Advising and Research.
