The question
What would the HB 2020 cap-and-trade program and alternative emission pathways to 2050 do to Oregon’s output, jobs, incomes and energy costs?
What BEAR found
The more aggressive pathway, cutting 2035 emissions 45 percent below 1990, adds about 1 percent to GDP and about 17,000 jobs. Holding cuts to 80 percent below 1990 by 2050 raises GDP more than 2.5 percent and adds about 50,000 jobs.
Averted medical costs and premature deaths from cleaner air contribute about a third of the overall growth, while efficiency and electrification savings drive broad gains.
Method
A dynamic CGE model of Oregon with an explicit cap-and-trade mechanism, calibrated to BEA, BLS, Census and IMPLAN data and to the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis forecasts, run from 2016 to 2050 with results downscaled to counties and census tracts.
Team
David Roland-Holst, Samuel Evans, Sam Heft-Neal and Drew Behnke.
Public record
- Oregon’s Cap-and-Trade Program (HB2020): An Economic Assessment, updated report (PDF)Oregon Legislature, March 2019
- Joint Committee on Carbon Reduction, meeting materialsFebruary 8, 2019
- Report: Economic Benefits Of Cap And Trade Will Outweigh The Costs In OregonOPB, February 10, 2019
How to cite
Roland-Holst, D., Evans, S., Heft-Neal, S., and Behnke, D. (2019). Oregon’s Cap-and-Trade Program (HB2020): An Economic Assessment. Consultant report prepared for the Oregon Carbon Policy Office. Berkeley Economic Advising and Research.
